Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in French Guiana in 2020-2021: 4 epidemic waves with cross-influences from Europe and South America.

Since the first cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan in December 2019, this RNA virus gave rise to different viral lineages with different virological, epidemiological and immunological properties. Here we describe the dynamics of circulation of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in an Amazonian South American French overseas territory, French Guiana (FG). The data analyzed are based on the general epidemic course, and genomic surveillance data come from whole genome sequencing (WGS) as well as typing PCRs. From March 2020 to October 2021, four COVID-19 epidemic waves were observed in FG with an evolution of viral lineages influenced by virus introductions from continental France and above all by land-based introductions from neighbouring countries. The third epidemic wave from March to June 2021 was driven by a predominant Gamma introduced from Brazil and a less frequent Alpha introduced from France. This coexistence was completely substituted by Delta that initiated the fourth epidemic wave.

COVID-19 epidemic in remote areas of the French Amazon, March 2020 to May 2021: Another reality.

BACKGROUND: French Guiana (FG) is an ultra-peripheral European region in the Amazon, and the COVID-19 epidemic has had very different kinetics from both its giant neighbors, Brazil or mainland France. METHODS: This study summarized the epidemics of COVID-19 in FG. RESULTS: The tropical climate, multiethnicity, and remoteness of the population forced healthcare providers to accordingly adapt the management of the epidemic. Incidence and mortality have been lower than that in Europe and Latin America due to a combination of prevalence of the youth in the population and highly developed healthcare system. CONCLUSIONS: Currently, vaccine hesitancy hinders the rapid expansion of vaccine coverage.

The Epidemiology of COVID 19 in the Amazon and the Guianas: Similarities, Differences, and International Comparisons.

Background: The COVID 19 epidemic submerged many health systems in the Amazon. The objective of the present study was to focus on the epidemic curves of the COVID 19 epidemic in different centers, and to look at testing and mortality data. Methods: Publicly available datasets were used. The log10 of the daily cumulated number of cases starting from the day the territory reached 100 cumulated cases was plotted to compare the magnitude, shape and slope of the different curves. The maximum daily testing efforts were plotted for each territory in relation to the maximum daily number of diagnoses. The case fatality rate was computed by dividing the number of COVID 19 deaths by the number of confirmed cases. Results: In the Amazonian regions in general the speed of growth was generally lower than in Europe or the USA, or Southern Brazil. Whereas, countries like South Korea or New Zealand "broke" the curve relatively rapidly the log linear trajectory seemed much longer with signs of a decline in growth rate as of early July 2020. After a very slow start, French Guiana had the lowest slope when compared to other Amazonian territories with significant epidemics. The Amazonian states of Roraima, Amazonas, Parà, and Amapà had among the highest number of cases and deaths per million inhabitants in the world. French Guiana had significantly fewer deaths relative to its number of confirmed cases than other Amazonian territories. French Guiana had a late epidemic surge with intense testing scale-up often exceeding 4,000 persons tested daily per million inhabitants. Brazil was an outlier with low daily testing levels in relation to the number of daily diagnoses. Conclusions: There were marked heterogeneities mortality rates suggesting that socioeconomic, political factors, and perhaps ethnic vulnerability led to striking outcome differences in this Amazonian context.

Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana.

While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June-July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns, and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions coincided with a reduction in the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid hospital saturation. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modelling can be used to support healthcare planning in a context of high uncertainty.